China Faces Serious Challenges, but Could Avoid a Hard Landing
As the world’s second-largest economy, China is at an important turning point. China’s leadership has pledged to put the economy on the right track and be less opaque about its currency moves. Economist Stephen Green and China affairs specialist Andrew Dougherty discuss: • The outlook for China’s economy and why a soft landing is more likely • The case against China pulling the trigger on big, one-time devaluation of its currency • Whether China’s leadership can manage the political and social implications of deep structural reforms • Pockets of strength in the Chinese economy during this transition to consumption-led growth What are your expectations for China’s economy this year and can a hard landing be avoided? Stephen: I expect China’s GDP to grow in the range of 3% to 4% this year (while the official figures show something above 6%). While China faces serious challenges, I think they can avoid a hard landing. The economy is going through a tough pe...